As we might have witnessed, the battle was intense, violent, coupled wild celebrations from some irresponsible quarters. The naked truth is that there is an open scramble for supremacy, two parties, MCP and UTM, are competing for dominance of the least populated but politically important region, swing region as some political analysts call it. Based on unofficial results, UTM, a political party yet to establish itself, has emerged victorious. Let’s see who is surely making real strides in their respective pursuits to make the north their stronghold, this has been done through some simple statistical analysis as tabulated in the attachment.
Methodologically, we have attempted to carry out a comparative analysis between the 2019 and 2021 parliamentary results for the same constituency. Take note that only 3 polical parties have been targeted in our analysis, MCP, UTM and DPP.
Statistically, from Karonga North West, in 2019, MCP got 22% of the total valid votes, UTM got 33%, DPP emerged the highest at 43%. In 2021, MCP’s performance has improved by 14% from 22% to 36%; UTM has improved by 4% from 33% to 37%; and DPP’s performance has nosedived from 43% to 16% (27% decrease).
In conclusion, the analysis above indicates MCP has registered the highest improvement in popularity (14%) seconded by UTM (4%); DPP, on the other hand, DPP has lost popularity (-27%). If such trend continues, MCP is likely to be the most dominant political party in the region, ceteris paribus.